Financial Forecasting

Financial Forecasting

Overview

The financial forecasting engine projects your business's cash position, revenue, expenses, and balance sheet from the data already held in iVendNext. Unlike the inventory and sales engines — which operate at the item level — the financial engine works at the account and company level, reading GL Entries and Sales Invoices to produce month-by-month projections across five forecast types.


This article explains how each forecast type works, what the Financial Forecast master record does, and how alerts surface financial conditions that need attention.




The Financial Forecast Master Record

The Financial Forecast is the master record that sits at the centre of financial forecasting in Foresight. It records the chosen prediction model, scores the prediction's risk and volatility, and carries the confidence and accuracy metadata. The Cashflow, Revenue, and Expense Forecast records all roll up to it.


Five forecast types are supported:


Forecast type

Allowed account types

Cash Flow

Bank, Cash, Receivable, Payable

Revenue

Income, Revenue

Expense

Expense

Balance Sheet

Asset, Liability, Equity

P&L

Income, Expense, Revenue


Key calculated fields on the master record:


volatility_score = (upper_bound lower_bound) / |predicted_amount| × 100


risk_category:

  confidence 75 AND volatility 30 Low

  confidence 60 AND volatility 50 Medium

  confidence 40                     High

  else                                Critical


trend_direction:

  change vs prior forecast > +5%  Increasing

  change vs prior forecast < −5%  Decreasing

  change > 2%                     Volatile

  else                            Stable


forecast_alert fires when:

  confidence < threshold

  OR risk is High or Critical

  OR volatility > 75




Cash Flow Forecasting

The Cashflow Forecast record provides a line-itemised cash inflow and outflow projection per company per month.


Inflows cover: receivables collection, sales forecast amount, other income, investment returns, and loan proceeds. Outflows cover: payables payment, inventory purchases, operating expenses, capital expenditure, and loan payments.


When inflow or outflow fields are left blank, Foresight auto-populates them from the company's cash and bank account movement for the month.


Key calculations:


net_cash_flow      = predicted_inflows predicted_outflows

closing_balance    = opening_balance + net_cash_flow

surplus_deficit    = closing_balance minimum_cash_required

liquidity_ratio    = predicted_inflows / predicted_outflows × 100


confidence         = (data_completeness + ratio_health) / 2

  where data_completeness = filled fields / 3 × 100

  and   ratio_health: liquidity 120 90 | 110 80 | 100 70 | 90 60 | else 40


alert_status:

  surplus_deficit < 0        Critical

  liquidity_ratio < 110      Warning

  else                       Normal


The liquidity comfort line is 110%. A month where liquidity falls below 110% generates a Warning alert even if the closing balance is positive.




Revenue Forecasting

The Revenue Forecast record projects monthly revenue by category, using submitted Sales Invoice history as its primary input. Revenue is broken down into six categories: product, service, recurring, one-time, commission, and other.


When revenue figures are needed, Foresight can auto-populate them from the company's confirmed sales for the period.


Key calculations:


total_predicted_revenue = sum of all revenue categories

growth_rate             = (current previous) / previous × 100

confidence              = min(95, max(50, 80 + growth_rate × 0.3))


seasonal_factor: Nov–Dec 1.3 | Jan–Feb 0.7 | Jun–Aug 0.9 | Sep–Oct 1.1 | else 1.0

market_factor:  growth > 10% 1.2 | growth < −5% 0.8 | else 1.0


trend_direction: growth > 5% Increasing | growth < −5% Decreasing | else Stable


A revenue alert fires when projected monthly revenue for any category falls below the minimum threshold configured in Foresight Settings.




Expense Forecasting

The Expense Forecast record projects monthly expenses by category with variance tracking against actuals. Six main categories are supported: fixed, variable, semi-variable, operational, administrative, and inventory-related. Inventory-related costs are further broken down into storage, handling, purchase-related, reorder, carrying, and stockout costs.


Key calculations:


total_predicted_expense = sum of main categories + sum of inventory-linked costs

variance_percentage     = (actual forecast) / forecast × 100

confidence              = clamp(85 |variance%| × 0.3, 50, 95)


alert_status: risk 70 Critical | risk 40 Warning | else Normal


optimisation flags:

  actual > forecast × 1.10 high-priority overspend flag

  actual < forecast × 0.90 underutilisation note


An expense alert fires when projected monthly expenses for any category exceed the maximum threshold configured in Foresight Settings.




How the Forecast Types Fit Together

The Financial Forecast master record ties all five forecast types together under one roof. The AI Finance Dashboard presents cash flow, revenue, and expense projections side by side, giving the finance team a single view of cash health, revenue trajectory, and expense run-rate.


The Finance Consolidated Predictive Insights report aggregates all forecast types into a single executive view. The overall financial health score is calculated as:


health = 0.45 × growth + 0.35 × stability + 0.20 × runway


Recommendations are generated automatically: a runway under 6 months triggers a "increase runway" flag; strong growth with high confidence triggers an "accelerate" recommendation.




Financial Alerts

Financial alerts are persistent records created when a forecast breaches a configured threshold or when the risk category reaches High or Critical. Key behaviour:


  • High or Critical priority alerts trigger email notifications to the assigned owner

  • Alert records surface in the AI Finance Dashboard

  • Balance alerts fire independently of forecast alerts:

    • Current balance < critical cash threshold → Critical alert

    • Current balance < cash trigger threshold → Warning alert

    • Current balance < 0 → Critical (negative balance) alert

    • Prediction differs from current balance by > 50% → Info alert


Thresholds — cash trigger, critical cash, minimum revenue, maximum expense — are configured per company in Foresight Settings.




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