Overview

A forecasting system is only useful if you can trust its outputs — and trust requires measurement. iVendNext Foresight includes two mechanisms for building and maintaining that trust: Forecast Accuracy Tracking, which measures how close each prediction was to the actual outcome once a period closes, and a configurable alert system that fires when forecasts — or the business conditions they reflect — cross thresholds you care about.

This article explains how accuracy is measured, how ratings are assigned, and how alerts work across all three forecasting engines.

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How Accuracy Is Tracked

Every forecast record in Foresight — whether inventory, sales, or financial — carries a predicted value and, eventually, an actual value. Once a forecast period closes and actuals are available, Foresight calculates the accuracy of that prediction and records it.

The accuracy formula is:

accuracy_percentage = max(0, (1 − |predicted − actual| / |actual|) × 100)

This produces a direct accuracy score from 0 to 100. The score is then translated into a rating on a five-point scale:

Score	Rating
≥ 95	Excellent
≥ 85	Good
≥ 70	Fair
≥ 50	Poor
< 50	Very Poor

This rating is stored on the forecast record and is visible in all dashboards and accuracy reports. Foresight also tracks the gap between confidence (how certain the model was at prediction time) and accuracy (how correct it turned out to be). A large gap flags an overconfident model — one that was sure of itself but wrong. This calibration signal is surfaced in the accuracy reports.

The Forecast Sync Log

Every time Foresight runs — whether triggered manually, on a schedule, by a background job, or in an emergency cycle — it creates a Forecast Sync Log record. The run type is recorded: Manual, Scheduled, Background, or Emergency.

Each Sync Log entry captures:

• Run type, status, start and end time, duration

• Company the run was scoped to

• Number of items processed and forecasts created or updated

• Number of reorder alerts raised

• Number of auto-PO and auto-SO drafts created

• Success rate and any errors

The Sync Log is the first place to check if forecasts appear stale, reorder alerts are not appearing, or the dashboard shows unexpected results. It gives a complete audit trail of every automated forecasting cycle.

The Forecast Accuracy Tracker

Beyond the accuracy rating on individual records, Foresight maintains a consolidated Forecast Accuracy record that logs predicted vs actual for every forecast once actuals are available. Trend is assessed across the last several records as improving, declining, or stable.

For inventory forecasting, accuracy is tracked per item per warehouse. For sales forecasting, it is tracked per customer per item. For financial forecasting, it is tracked per account and forecast type.

The accuracy records feed into three dedicated accuracy reports:

• R7: Inventory Forecast Accuracy Analysis — item-level back-test with error tiers

• R9: Sales Forecast Accuracy Analysis — customer × item back-test with revenue impact

• R8: Financial Forecast Accuracy Report — model performance by account, model type, and horizon

These reports make it easy to include a "forecast health" view in regular business reviews and identify which items, customers, or accounts have the most room for improvement.

Alerts Across All Three Engines

Foresight's alert system operates at two levels: engine-level alerts generated automatically by the forecasting logic, and threshold alerts configured in Foresight Settings.

Engine-level alerts are raised by the engines themselves:

• Reorder alert (inventory engine): raised when current bin stock falls at or below the calculated reorder level.

• Churn risk (sales engine): forecast records classified as High churn risk are flagged in the Sales Dashboard.

• Low confidence: forecast records with confidence below the configured threshold are flagged. Records are still created and displayed, but the flag signals limited or volatile data.

• Forecast alert (financial engine): fires when confidence falls below threshold, risk reaches High or Critical, or volatility exceeds 75.

Threshold alerts are configured in Foresight Settings and apply to the financial engine:

• Cash flow: alerts when projected net cash falls below the configured cash trigger threshold, or the critical cash threshold.

• Revenue: alerts when projected monthly revenue for any category falls below a minimum.

• Expense: alerts when projected monthly expenses for any category exceed a maximum.

• Balance alerts: fire independently when current GL balances cross configured limits or turn negative.

High and Critical financial alerts trigger email notifications to the assigned owner. All other alerts are visible in-application in the relevant dashboard.

Acting on Alerts

Alerts in Foresight surface conditions for your team to evaluate — they do not block transactions or auto-submit documents. The intended workflow:

• Buying team: reviews the Inventory Dashboard each morning for reorder alerts and low-confidence flags

• Sales team: reviews the Sales Dashboard for churn risk and cross-sell metrics

• Finance team: reviews the AI Finance Dashboard at the start of each financial review cycle for cash, revenue, and expense alerts

To act on an alert, navigate to the relevant forecast record, review the figures, and either take manual action or use the auto-create PO/SO features if the forecast meets your criteria.